Weekly - dairy essentials China
26th -27th Week 6.21 – 7.3
1 Fundamental
1) After a shortwhile turning point, FCMP price start going down again.The FCMP old stocks seems going to end.
2) Summer vacation
3) AMF got some reserve order for Q3 ，
市场在艰难的转折点停下来又有再度下探趋势（但我们预计跌幅很有限）。 市场库存逐渐见底。
暑期经济略有活跃。
1.1 Micro Economic updated data：
Offering Price :
FCMP - slow consuming speed but supported weakly
FT FCMP RMB 28,500 flat (about FAS 3,250 dollars ) previous RMB 2,8500
No more goods -old stock
SMP - no changed , RMB 26000 /MT （previous 25，800 ）
Butter - slightly active demand ，RMB42000/MT
AMF - old stocks almost consumed ,RMB 38500 -38，700/MT
1.2 Macro Economy Data：
(1) The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction Status , while the production and demand index fell, the recovery slope of the non-manufacturing industry also fell, and there are structural problems such as the service industry is better than consumption industry, pointing to the slowdown of the total economic repair pace and structural differentiation this year.
(2) Since the second quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value has been lower than market expectations, the growth rate of the three major investments has declined, the demand for Food-service is better than commodities, and the demand for high-quanlity consumer goods is better than that of low- quanlity commodities.
(3) In addition, since the beginning of this year, the overall pace of total demand repair is weaker than that of total supply, which is compounded by the downward trend of the pig cycle and the low volatility of international oil prices, and the inflation data continues to run at a low level.
(4) In addition, the risk of overseas recession is further fermented, and the drag of external demand on China's economic repair gradually appears at the export side. In general, under the pressure environment of fundamental repair, the need to cut interest rates to boost the economy rebound, and the overseas interest rate hike cycle , and China's low inflation environment also provides objective conditions for monetary easing.
(1）制造业PMI在6 月连续处于收缩区间，而产需指数均回落至荣枯线下，非制造业复苏斜率也有所回落，且存在服务业好于消费等结构性问题，指向今年经济修节奏复总量放缓而结构分化。
(2）考虑到基数效应，二季度以来工业增加值同比增速低于市场预期，三大投资增速下行，社零数据结构分化，餐饮需求好于商品、高端消费品需求好于低端消费品。
（3）此外，今年以来总需求修复节奏整体弱于总供给，叠加猪周期下行而国际油价低位震荡，通胀数据持续低位运行。
（4）再者，海外衰退风险进一步发酵，外需对我国经济修复的拖累在出口端逐步显现。总体而言，基本面修复承压环境下降息托举经济的必要性回升，而海外加息周期临近终点，我国低通胀环境也为宽货币发力提供了客观条件。
1.1.1 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Month 月份 | 全国All over the country | City part 城市 | Rural 农村 | ||||||||||
This month当月 | 同比 | 环比增长Comparative growth on moving base | grand total累计 | This month当月 | YOY同比 | 环比 | grand total累计 | This month当月 | YOY同比 | Comparative growth on moving base环比 | grand total 累计 |
当月 | |
MAY 2023 | 100.2 | 0.2% | -0.2% | 100.8 | 100.2 | 0.2% | -0.2% | 100.8 | 100.1 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 100.8 | |
April 2023 | 100.1 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 101 | 100.2 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 101 | 100.1 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 100.9 | |
MAR 2023 | 100.7 | 0.7% | -0.3% | 101.3 | 100.7 | 0.7% | -0.3% | 101.3 | 100.6 | 0.6% | -0.3% | 101.2 | |
FEB 2023 | 101 | 1.0% | -0.5% | 101.5 | 101 | 1.0% | -0.5% | 101.6 | 101 | 1.0% | -0.5% | 101.5 | |
JAN 2023 | 102.1 | 2.1% | 0.8% | 102.1 | 102.1 | 2.1% | 0.8% | 102.1 | 102.1 | 2.1% | 0.5% | 102.1 | |
Dec 2022 | 101.8 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 102 | 101.8 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 102 | 101.8 | 1.8% | -0.2% | 102 | |
NOV2022 | 101.6 | 1.6% | -0.2% | 102 | 101.5 | 1.5% | -0.2% | 102 | 101.7 | 1.7% | -0.2% | 102 | |
Oct 2022 | 102.1 | 2.1% | 0.1% | 102 | 102 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 102 | 102.5 | 2.5% | 0.1% | 102 | |
(PMI) 采购经理人指数
Month | manufacturing industry制造业 | |||||
指数 | 同比增长 | 指数 | 同比增长 | |||
2023-05 | 48.8 | -1.61% | 54.5 | 14.02% | ||
2023-04 | 49.2 | 3.80% | 56.4 | 34.61% | ||
2023-03 | 51.9 | 4.85% | 58.2 | 20.25% | ||
the reserve requirement ratio 存款准备金率
Issued date | Valid from | · Large financial institution | · Small-Middle financial institution |
公布时间 | 生效时间 | 大型金融机构 | 中小型金融机构 |
2023年03月17日 | 2023年03月27日 | 10.75% | 7.75% |
2022年11月25日 | 2022年12月05日 | 11.00% | 8.00% |
2022年04月15日 | 2022年04月25日 | 11.25% | 8.25% |
Quarter | GDP | YOY | primary ndustry / | secondary/ industry | tertiary industry |
23-1st | 284996.6 | 4.50% | 11575 | 107946.7 | 165474.9 |
22-4st | 1210207.2 | 3.00% | 88345.1 | 483164.5 | 638697.6 |
22-3rd | 874699.3 | 3.00% | 54848.5 | 350563.8 | 469286.9 |
Month | Current | YOY growth | grand total |
Month | Current | 同比增长 | 累计 |
2023-05 | 95.4 | -4.60% | 97.4 |
2023-04 | 96.4 | -3.60% | 97.9 |
2023-03 | 97.5 | -2.50% | 98.4 |
Month | Current (亿元) | 同比 | Compared to last month | Accumulated |
Month | 当月(亿元) | YOY 同比 | Compared to last month | Accumulated |
2023-May 05 | 16521 | 32.74% | -20.69% | 99692 |
2023-04 | 20830 | 69.96% | 24.74% | 83171 |
2023-03Mar | 16699 | 5.46% | - | 62341 |
National tax revenue 全国税收收入
季度 | 税收收入合计(亿元) | 较上年同期(%) | 季度环比(%) |
季度 | 税收收入合计(亿元) | 较上年同期(%) | 季度环比(%) |
2023年1季度 | 51707 | -1.40% | 22.39% |
2022年1-4季度 | 166614 | -3.50% | 8.89% |
2022年1-3季度 | 124365 | -11.60% | 17.18% |
l Growth in industrial value added 工业增加值增长
Month | YOY growth | Cumulative growth |
月份 | 同比增长 | 累计增长 |
2023年05月份 | 3.5% | 3.6% |
2023年04月份 | 5.6% | 3.6% |
2023年03月份 | 3.9% | 3.0% |
· The following index can be showed more ：
l Enterprise commodity price index 企业商品价格指数 + up
It is an big important signal- retail food industry and transportation Cost- quietly raised，seems lead to structural rising trend. For example，Oil prices and interest rates are falling, fast food retail food, and travel prices are rising slightly
l Total retail sales of consumer goods 社会消费品零售总额
Month | 当月(亿元) | 同比 | 环比 | Cumulative (亿元) | 同比增长 |
月份 | 当月(亿元) | 同比 | 环比 | 累计(亿元) | 同比增长 |
2023年05月份 | 37803 | 12.70% | 8.29% | 187636 | 9.30% |
2023年04月份 | 34910 | 18.40% | -7.78% | 149833 | 8.50% |
2023年03月份 | 37855.4 | 10.60% | - | 114922.4 | 5.80% |
Check more 点击查看全部社会消费品零售总额数据>>
Consumer confidence index 消费者信心指数
Month | Consumer confidence index | Satisfied index | Expected index |
月份 | 消费者信心指数 | 消费者满意指数 | 消费者预期指数 |
2023年03月份 | 94.9 | 92.8 | 98 |
2023年02月份 | 94.7 | 92.3 | 98.4 |
2023年01月份 | 91.2 | 89.6 | 93.7 |
Business boom index and entrepreneur confidence Index
Period /Quarter | Business boom index | confidence Index | ||||
指数 | 同比 | 环比 | 指数 | 同比 | 环比 | |
季度 | 企业景气指数 | 企业家信心指数 | ||||
指数 | 同比 | 环比 | 指数 | 同比 | 环比 | |
2023年第1季度 | 107.8 | 7.80% | 8.90% | - | - | - |
2022年第4季度 | 98.9 | -1.10% | -1.70% | - | - | - |
2022年第3季度 | 100.6 | 0.60% | -1.20% | - | - | - |
l List of customs import and export increase and decrease 海关进出口增减情况一览表
月份 | 当月出口额 | 当月进口额 | ||||
金额(亿美元) | 同比 | 环比 | 金额(亿美元) | 同比 | 环比 | |
月份 | 当月出口额 | 当月进口额 | ||||
金额(亿美元) | 同比 | 环比 | 金额(亿美元) | 同比 | 环比 | |
2023年05月份 | 2835 | -7.50% | -4.03% | 2177 | -4.50% | 6.08% |
2023年04月份 | 2954 | 8.50% | -6.38% | 2052 | -7.90% | -9.74% |
2023年03月份 | 3155 | 14.80% | 47.57% | 2273 | -1.40% | 15.18% |
corporate goods price index 物价/ 企业商品价格指数
Month | Index | Agricultural products | mineral products | coal oil electricity |
月份 | 总指数 | 农产品 | 矿产品 | 煤油电 |
2023年04月份 | 97.1 | 102.1 | 100.1 | 96.1 |
2023年03月份 | 98.3 | 105.7 | 101.7 | 98.3 |
2023年02月份 | 99.7 | 106.4 | 102.4 | 103.1 |
2023年05月份 | 108.5 | -18.42% | - | 843.5 | -5.60% |
2023年04月份 | - | - | - | 735 | -3.30% |
2023年02月份 | 206.9 | -6.04% | 8.78% | 397.1 | 1.00% |
1.1.2 Cost of funds, market liquidity exchange rate chart资金成本，市场资金面流通性 汇率走势图
· The dollar continues to be stable and up to 7.12
1.3 Exchange rate &Cost of funds 资金成本，市场资金面流通性 汇率
· Shanghai interbank offered rate June -05 Shibor interest table
· 06月20日Shibor品种利率表
Type 品种 | interest (%) | 涨跌(BP) | |
1.9890 | -23.9000 | ||
2.0430 | 5.9000 | ||
2.2010 | 19.0000 | ||
2.0460 | 2.5000 | ||
2.1260 | 1.2000 | ||
· 06月5日Shibor品种利率表
Type 品种 | interest (%) | 涨跌(BP) | |
1.2300 | -7.7000 | ||
1.8470 | 3.3000 | ||
1.8500 | -2.0000 | ||
2 Summary
China's dairy raw material market seems close to a turning point well the weak international condition extend the downtrend period, According to the current CPI/PMI /PPI index trend, the industrial circulation/raw material consumption speed is not quick .
However ,someone emphasis the FCMP stock almost be consumed out. And the heat endurance of Cow will quickly decrease the production and cut the expectation of more local FCMP volume.All of it are ready for the turning .
End