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网站首页 >> 行情汇总定期发布 >> 乳品原料35-40周报 Weekly - Chinesedairy ingredients/dairy essentials China
乳品原料35-40周报 Weekly - Chinesedairy ingredients/dairy essentials China
来源: | 作者:淘米主笔 | 发布时间: 2023-10-08 | 158 次浏览 | 分享到:
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dairy price trend Fundamental
1）After 2 continuous GDT up, Local China FCMP stock price still do not have clear trend up. （This time ，lack of the biggest buyer data from Yili Group ）
2) 8-day holiday showing a raised record verses year 2019 ，but was down calculated at consumption per person.
3）The real estate economics will drag the whole year Domestic economics performance.

During the 8-day "super Golden Week", more than 800 million people traveled and domestic tourism revenue exceeded 750 billion yuan... Foodservice were recovering quickly.

Influenced by the superposition effect of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day as well as the Asian Games boom, consumer demand for catering, travel, ticket attractions and accommodation grew strongly.The tourism market is recovering strongly.

8天的“超级黄金周”，超8亿人次出游、国内旅游收入超7500亿元。餐饮消费和营业店面陆续恢复。受中秋和国庆叠加效应以及亚运会热潮的影响，餐饮、出行、门票景点和住宿等消费需求强劲增长。旅游市场复苏势头强劲。

4） In September，PMI was 50.2%，Up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, expand this time.

According to enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be above the critical point; The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.6 percent, unchanged from the previous month and below the critical point; The PMI for small enterprises was 48.0 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point. In terms of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point.

九月PMI指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，重返扩张区间。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.6%，比上月上升0.8个百分点，继续高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.6%，与上月持平，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，原材料库存指数、从业人员指数低于临界点。

Weekly  - dairy essentials China

           35 th  -40th  Week    9.1　– 10.7

1      Fundamental

1）After 2 continuous GDT up, Local China FCMP stock price still do not have clear trend up. （This time ，lack of the biggest buyer data from Yili Group ）

2)     8-day holiday showing a raised record verses year 2019 ，but was down calculated at consumption per person.

3）The real estate economics will drag the whole year Domestic economics performance.

During the 8-day "super Golden Week", more than 800 million people traveled and domestic tourism revenue exceeded 750 billion yuan... Foodservice were recovering quickly.

Influenced by the superposition effect of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day as well as the Asian Games boom, consumer demand for catering, travel, ticket attractions and accommodation grew strongly.The tourism market is recovering strongly.

8天的“超级黄金周”，超8亿人次出游、国内旅游收入超7500亿元。餐饮消费和营业店面陆续恢复。受中秋和国庆叠加效应以及亚运会热潮的影响，餐饮、出行、门票景点和住宿等消费需求强劲增长。旅游市场复苏势头强劲。

4） In September，PMI was 50.2%，Up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, expand this time.

According to enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be above the critical point; The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.6 percent, unchanged from the previous month and below the critical point; The PMI for small enterprises was 48.0 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point. In terms of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point.

九月PMI指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，重返扩张区间。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.6%，比上月上升0.8个百分点，继续高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.6%，与上月持平，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，原材料库存指数、从业人员指数低于临界点。

1.1 Dairy Essentials -Micro Economic updated data：

Offering Price :

FCMP  - still slow consuming speed but supported strongly ,

FT FCMP  RMB 28,000 flat ,Future 28300 ,previous  RMB 2,8500 in July to SEP

 

SMP -  actually no too much demand 24,200  /MT ,（previous 24，000 in Aug ,25800 in JULY ）

Butter - quickly active demand ，RMB49,600 /MT ,previous RMB42,000 /MT in July-AUG

AMF  - RMB42,000 /MT  ,RMB  previous 38500 -38，700/MT  in July    

 

1.2      Macro Economy Data：    

1.2.1Consumer Price Index (CPI)  

Month    月份

全国All over the country          

City part 城市

Rural 农村


This month当月

同比
   增长YOY

环比增长Comparative growth    on moving base

grand total累计

This month当月

YOY同比
   增长

环比
   增长Comparative growth    on moving base

grand total累计

This month当月

YOY同比
   增长

Comparative growth on moving base环比
   增长

grand total

累计


AUG2023

100.1

0.1%

0.3%

100.5

100.2

0.2%

0.2%

100.5

99.8

-0.2%

0.4%

100.3


JULY 2023

99.7

0.3%

0.2%

100.5

99.8

-0.2%

0.3%

100.6

99.4

-0.6%

0.0%

100.4


June 2023

100

0.0%

-0.2%

100.7

100

0.0%

-0.2%

100.7

99.9

-0.1%

-0.2%

100.6


MAY 2023

100.2

0.2%

-0.2%

100.8

100.2

0.2%

-0.2%

100.8

100.1

0.1%

-0.2%

100.8


April 2023

100.1

0.1%

-0.1% 

101

100.2

0.2%

-0.1%

101

100.1

0.1%

-0.2%

100.9


MAR 2023

100.7

0.7%

-0.3%

101.3

100.7

0.7%

-0.3%

101.3

100.6

0.6%

-0.3%

101.2


FEB 2023

101

1.0%

-0.5%

101.5

101

1.0%

-0.5%

101.6

101

1.0%

-0.5%

101.5


JAN 2023

102.1

2.1%

0.8%

102.1

102.1

2.1%

0.8%

102.1

102.1

2.1%

0.5%

102.1


Dec 2022

101.8

1.8%

0.0%

102

101.8

1.8%

0.0%

102

101.8

1.8%

-0.2%

102


NOV2022

101.6

1.6%

-0.2%

102

101.5

1.5%

-0.2%

102

101.7

1.7%

-0.2%

102


Oct 2022

102.1

2.1%

0.1%   

102

102

2.0%

0.0%

102

102.5

2.5%

0.1%

102


 

1.2.2         The pig price can’t be kept higher,it is a bad feedback of consumption.  The Y- axis is the selling price of pig meat .

 

                                               

 

2.Exchange rate &Cost of funds 资金成本，市场资金面流通性 汇率

The dollar continues to be stable and up to  7.3177

Shanghai interbank offered rate  Oct -05 Shibor　interest table

上海 银行间拆借利率 10月08日Shibor品种利率表   8th,OCT

品种

利率(%)

涨跌(BP)

隔夜(O/N)

1.7010

-45.4000

1周(1W)

1.8310

-36.4000

2周(2W)

1.8620

-136.9000

1月(1M)

2.2720

-1.3000

3月(3M)

2.3000

-0.2000

6月(6M)

2.3570

0.1000

9月(9M)

2.4010

-0.1000

1年(1Y)

2.4460

0.0000





l  Shanghai interbank offered rate interest table  20th,JUNE Shibor品种利率表   

Type    品种

interest    (%)

涨跌(BP)

隔夜(O/N)

1.9890

-23.9000

1周(1W)

2.0430

5.9000

2周(2W)

2.2010

19.0000

1月(1M)

2.0460

2.5000

3月(3M)

2.1260

1.2000





3.Summary

However, the Double holiday showing the weak recovering condition from China Market. Affected by the apparent effect of policies, the gradual recovery of demand and market expectations, the industry prosperity recovered significantly from the previous month. Each sub-index has a different degree of recovery, of which the total business index, new orders index, inventory turnover index and employee index rose more than 3 percentage points.

Regionally, business demand in the eastern, central and western regions grew evenly. In the later period, with the continuous force of policies such as stabilizing demand, stabilizing growth, and boosting confidence, the economy and logistics operation have the basis for stabilizing and recovering.

9月份，受政策显效、需求逐步恢复和市场预期向好等因素影响，物流业景气指数较上月明显回升。各分项指数均有不同程度回升，其中业务总量指数、新订单指数、库存周转次数指数和从业人员指数环比回升超过3个百分点。从区域看，东中西部地区业务需求均衡增长。后期，随着稳需求、稳增长、提信心等政策持续发力，经济和物流运行具备企稳回升基础。

From the Cost of capital side, the low interest capital leave the opportunity to draw up the GDT price ,while we can see the not stable afterwards trend.

 

End